Issued by the African Center for Consultancy
9 November 2025
Mali has recently witnessed a dangerous escalation of political and security tensions, amid internal exhaustion and increasing regional and international isolation. Field reports indicate that the capital, Bamako, is under mounting pressure due to a logistical and security blockade imposed by armed groups linked to extremist organizations, which intensified since September 2025 operations aimed at cutting off major supply routes to the capital. This blockade has exacerbated the fuel crisis, increased prices, caused electricity outages, and led to the closure of schools and markets, which some media sources have described as the onset of a humanitarian crisis in major urban centers.
On the political level, the military council led by Colonel Assimi Goïta dominates the scene, having enacted legislation granting extended powers and dissolving political parties, resulting in an almost complete shutdown of the political space. News agencies reported that authorities officially dissolved parties under the pretext of “reorganizing the national political landscape”, a move that drew domestic and international criticism, seen as an indicator of the political process sliding towards autocratic rule. Observers have noted that these measures reinforce the regime`s isolation and diminish the prospects for a transition to civilian governance, while public discontent grows due to deteriorating living conditions and the lack of a political horizon.
On the security front, Mali has experienced a fundamental shift in external actors. Following the withdrawal of French forces and the UN mission (MINUSMA), new Russian entities have replaced the former Wagner group, under the label “African Corps”. International reports indicate that this new presence has not fundamentally changed operational patterns, with the same types of field abuses continuing against civilians, particularly in central and northern regions. Human rights organizations have confirmed that 2025 saw a rise in enforced disappearances and summary executions, particularly among the Fulani community, threatening a resurgence of ethnic conflicts and potential cycles of local retaliation.
The internal crisis intersects with shifting regional dynamics. With the retreat of traditional Western powers, Bamako is seeking new alliances with neighboring countries and Russia to fill the security vacuum. Reports from the African Union indicate mutual contacts for mediation efforts between the government and some armed groups, though mutual distrust limits the likelihood of success. Meanwhile, regional states are watching the spread of armed groups from northern Mali to the borders of Niger and Burkina Faso with concern, especially as the Sahelian armies’ ability to coordinate on the ground has declined after withdrawing from the G5 Sahel coalition.
The crisis in Mali goes beyond security issues, revealing a deep legitimacy deficit and governance crisis. Following the 2020 and 2021 coups, the current government has lost the ability to build national consensus, while recent measures have closed the civilian political space, paving the way for more fragile scenarios. At the same time, armed groups have shifted their tactics from direct attacks to economic blockades and supply cut-offs, aiming to impose political realities on the ground.
Current indicators suggest that the country is heading towards further instability unless urgent steps are taken to address both the humanitarian and political crises. The continued blockade of roads, shortages of fuel and essential goods in major cities, and deterioration of public freedoms point to the potential for widespread social unrest or further institutional collapse. Local and international organizations have warned that the militarization of governance may lead to internal divisions within the military and potentially another internal coup if popular and security pressures persist simultaneously.
Nevertheless, limited but viable opportunities for de-escalation exist through regional mediation led by neutral African actors, initially focusing on a humanitarian truce to reopen supply routes, followed by discussions on a political roadmap with clear timelines for restoring civilian authority and holding elections under international supervision. An African diplomatic source stated, “Field de-escalation must precede any electoral discussions,” emphasizing the need to secure stability before engaging in political processes.
A realistic approach to Mali’s situation should start with three essential points:
- Protecting civilians and halting systematic abuses.
- Reopening supply lines and securing essential services in the capital and major cities.
- Launching an inclusive political process with a defined timeline for democratic transition.
It is crucial for African states and international partners to maintain communication channels with all Malian actors, intensify on-the-ground humanitarian aid, and press for accountability regarding documented crimes and human rights violations.
In conclusion, Mali stands at a critical crossroads between two paths:
- One path leads to further chaos and isolation due to militarization of power, escalating violations, and the threat of extremist groups complicating the situation.
- The other path offers a gradual state reconstruction through measures that balance security and politics.
The choice remains with local actors, but the window of opportunity is narrowing amid continued blockade of supply routes, worsening humanitarian conditions, and the growing presence of unaccountable external actors. Sustainable stability in Mali will only be achieved by addressing the root causes of the crisis, namely restoring political legitimacy, establishing a new national pact to rebuild trust between the state and society, and enabling Mali to overcome internal crises, curb extremist group activity, and navigate complex external interventions.